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  • California TK-12 enrollment ticks down, while number of homeless and poor students rises

    California TK-12 enrollment ticks down, while number of homeless and poor students rises


    Zaidee Stavely/EdSource

    Top Takeaways
    • The 0.54% decline was steeper than last year but not as dramatic as the plunge at the peak of the pandemic.
    • The drop in enrollment was somewhat offset by the expansion of transitional kindergarten.
    • The number of students identified as homeless jumped 9.3% from last year.

    New state data released Wednesday shows that California’s TK-12 enrollment has continued its steady post-pandemic decline. At the same time, the number of poor and homeless students has been increasing.

    For the 2024-25 school year, enrollment statewide declined by 31,469 students or 0.54%, compared to last year. California now has 5.8 million students in grades TK-12 compared to 6.2 million students in 2004-05. The new data from the state is based on enrollment counts for the first Wednesday in October, known as Census Day.

    This year’s decline is a little steeper than last year’s, which was 0.25%, but relatively flat compared to the enrollment plunge at the peak of the pandemic.

    “The overall slowing enrollment decline is encouraging and reflects the hard work of our LEAs across the state,” said state schools Superintendent Tony Thurmond in a statement.

    The drop in enrollment was somewhat offset by the state’s gradual rollout of transitional kindergarten. More students were eligible for the new grade than last year, and the numbers reflect that. An additional 26,079 students enrolled in transitional kindergarten — a 17.2% increase — while most other grade levels saw dips in enrollment.

    The new state data also reflect an increasing number of students who are experiencing economic hardship. An additional 32,179 students now qualify as socioeconomically disadvantaged, a 0.9% increase. This data show that 230,443 students were identified as homeless — a 9.3% increase from the last school year.

    The number of students identified as English learners decreased by 6.1%. This is largely in response to Assembly Bill 2268, which exempted transitional kindergarten students from taking the English Language Proficiency Assessment for California (ELPAC).

    Previously, schools tested transitional kindergarten students with a screener meant for kindergarten students, which was not appropriate for younger students and was therefore unreliable, according to Carolyne Crolotte, director of policy at Early Edge California, a nonprofit organization that advocates for early education. The state is in the process of creating a new screener, but in the interim, almost no English learners are being identified in this grade.

    State officials attribute much of the enrollment decline to demographic factors, such as a declining birth rate. 

    Enrollment saw its greatest decline in regions of the state with higher housing prices, notably Los Angeles County and Orange County. There is growth in more affordable areas of the state, such as the San Joaquin Valley and Northern California, including the Sacramento area.

    Enrollment in charter schools has steadily increased at the same time enrollment in traditional public school is decreasing. This year an additional 50,000 students attended a charter. Now 12.5% of students in California are enrolled in charter schools, which is up from 8.7% ten years ago.

    The California Department of Education characterized transitional kindergarten numbers, which went up 17.2%, as a “boom.” A release from the department stated that 85% of school districts are offering transitional kindergarten at all school sites. It also said that transitional kindergarten is creating more spaces in the state preschool for 3-year-olds. 

    However, the enrollment numbers for transitional kindergarten are well below early estimates advanced by the Learning Policy Institute in 2022 which had estimated that 60% to 75% of eligible students would enroll in transitional kindergarten. The just released numbers show closer to about 40% of eligible students are opting in for transitional kindergarten, which according to Bruce Fuller, professor of education and public policy at UC Berkeley, is “not exactly universal preschool.” 

    The Governor’s recently released budget revision noted that lower daily attendance prompted him to reduce funds aimed at transitional kindergarten by $300 million. The state plans to lower the student to adult ratio in these classrooms from 12:1 to 10:1 next year, but will need less money to do so because of lower enrollment.

    Transitional kindergarten has been gradually expanding over a five-year period to include all 4-year-olds. This school year, all students who turn five years old between Sept. 2 and Jun. 2 were eligible. The expansion to all 4-year-olds will be complete in the 2025-26 school year.

    The expansion of transitional kindergarten doesn’t seem to be reaching more eligible four-year-olds than the previous system of private preschools, state preschools and Head Start, Fuller said. He notes that enrollment in those programs has been in decline at the same time that transitional kindergarten has been growing.

    Crolotte praised the state for its expansion of transitional kindergarten but said that some families may not know that their children are eligible for the program.

    “I think more work needs to be done about communication to families and knowing that this is available to them,” Crolotte said.





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  • Enrollment ticks up 2% at Cal State, its first increase since 2020

    Enrollment ticks up 2% at Cal State, its first increase since 2020


    Cal State Fullerton commencement 2022

    Credit: Cal State Fullerton/Flickr

    California State University’s fall 2024 enrollment has risen to 461,000 students, driven by record gains among first-time, first-year students that nonetheless left the system short of its fall 2020 peak.

    Preliminary data shows enrollment across the 23-campus system has inched up 2%, buoyed by more than 68,500 new first-year students this fall. 

    But Cal State has not yet returned to its 2020 high point, when enrollment hit 485,550 students. Headcount dipped for each of the next three school years, settling at 454,640 students in fall 2023. 

    In a news release, Chancellor Mildred García said the system is pursuing a “multi-year, holistic enrollment growth strategy” and is focused on recruiting and retaining students, including community college transfers. 

    “This promising upward momentum demonstrates the confidence that Californians have in the extraordinary power of a CSU degree to transform lives, particularly for America’s new majority, comprised of first-generation students, students of color, low-income students and adults seeking new opportunities,” García said.

    Cal State reported a 7% increase in enrollment among transfer students, a 2% increase among graduate students and a 1% increase among continuing undergraduate students.  

    Preliminary figures show that 54% of CSU’s first-year students are Latino and that 4% of first-year students are Black. CSU did not break out data on Native American, Asian American and Pacific Islander student enrollment, nor was campus-level enrollment reported. The university system expects to release final systemwide numbers in November.

    FAFSA fallout? 

    Increased enrollment at Cal State will be welcome news to observers who feared that the rocky rollout of the new Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) application might depress enrollment.

    Changes to the application that debuted last year were designed make the process faster and more efficient for families. But delays and glitches plagued the new form, a critical step students must complete to find out whether they’re eligible for federal aid such as Pell Grants, loans and work-study programs. 

    The troubled FAFSA cycle sparked worries that students who were uncertain about their financial aid packages would put off enrolling in college this school year. Previous research has found that receiving grant aid boosts students’ persistence and degree completion.

    Financial aid officers and advocates also voiced concern about how the new application was affecting California students from mixed-status families. Many of those students — those with at least one parent without a Social Security number — had trouble submitting the FAFSA form.

    The delays prompted both Cal State and the University of California to extend their spring deadlines for new students to declare their intent to register for fall 2024 classes, a recognition that many families would need more time to better understand how much their education would cost.

    California ultimately fared better than most other states in terms of FAFSA completions, according to data from the National College Attainment Network. The state notched a 56% FAFSA completion rate, exceeding a rate of roughly 52% among high school seniors nationwide. That’s despite a 7% year-over-year decline in the number of FAFSA completions in California.

    Cal State credited financial aid staff at its universities with helping students to work through a frustrating FAFSA cycle and processing provisional financial aid offers quickly. (The news release cited a rise in federal Pell Grants at CSU, but did not say how much awards increased.) 

    Difficulties with the FAFSA rollout might also have been offset by California’s universal FAFSA completion policy, which was passed in 2021. Assembly Bill 132 tasks school districts with ensuring that graduating seniors complete the FAFSA or the California Dream Act Application, but gives students the ability to opt out of doing so. A recent report by the Public Policy Institute of California found that applications from high school seniors ahead of UC and CSU’s March 2 deadline climbed 16% in the policy’s first year.

    Denise Luna, the director of higher education policy at research and advocacy nonprofit EdTrust-West, said in a written statement that Cal State’s preliminary numbers indicate that giving prospective students more time to consider the costs of a CSU education was not just the right thing to do, but also “the strategic thing to do.”

    “This year’s applicants need the same flexibility,” she wrote. “Since financial aid application timelines are delayed again, we will be looking to the CSU to plan to once again extend their intent-to-register deadline in 2025.”

    Post-pandemic prognosis

    CSU’s preliminary fall headcount is also a step toward reversing pandemic-era enrollment declines.

    Enrollment across the CSU system fell 1.7% in fall 2021, part of a nationwide drop during Covid-19. Seventeen of the system’s 23 campuses saw a year-over-year enrollment slump. 

    Cal State campuses reacted with strategies designed to entice students back, including programs to re-enroll students who stopped attending college with incentives like waived fees and priority registration.

    But CSU enrollment continued to slide in fall 2022, a consequence of record-low enrollment at the state’s community colleges, which had the knock-on effect of fewer transfer students entering Cal State. 

    Demographic trends in the state’s K-12 system may also affect CSU’s student body going forward. In the 2022-23 school year, K-12 public school enrollment fell for the sixth consecutive year. The California Department of Finance projects a drop of more than 660,000 public K-12 students over the next decade if current fertility and migration trends continue.

    Still, CSU sees this fall’s numbers as a good omen. Preliminary fall 2024 enrollment, though 5% below the 2020 peak, “signals additional growth in the coming years,” a system announcement said.





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