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  • What high school graduating classes might look like in 2041

    What high school graduating classes might look like in 2041


    Credit: Fermin Leal / EdSource

    More graduates in California and nationwide will walk across the stage to receive their high school diplomas in the spring of 2025 than in more than a decade — and more than in decades to come.   

    The “Knocking at the College Door” report, released Wednesday by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, predicts how many students might graduate across each state in the country, how demographics might shift, and the extent to which the Covid-19 pandemic could have an impact still. 

    The researchers anticipate that the number of students graduating from high schools in the United States will peak next year and then fall gradually until 2041. The number of California graduates is expected to drop across all racial and ethnic demographics — except for multiracial students, who are expected to increase by more than 200%.

    “After years of growth, higher education in the United States now faces a decline in the size of the traditional college-going population as well as shifting demographic patterns within that population,” the organization’s president, Demarée K. Michelau, stated in the foreword of the report.

    “These enrollment factors and the pressures of inflation and constraints on government funds combine to present the most perplexing set of issues to face higher education planners and administrators in a generation,” the foreword continued. 

    Here are the key takeaways from the report. 

    The number of high school graduates is expected to peak in 2025 

    The number of students graduating from public high schools in both the state and the nation is projected to peak in 2025. 

    After that, the number is expected to fall steadily from about 3.5 million nationally to 3.1 million in 2041, largely because of declining birth and fertility rates, but also because students are projected to take longer to finish their K-12 journeys. 

    The report notes that net migration and mortality also play a role. 

    California is one of five high-population states that are expected to make up about three-quarters of the national decline, according to the report.

    “When we hit the peak in 2025 and then start declining with the number of high school graduates, that puts more downward pressure on those postsecondary moments,” said report co-author Patrick Lane, who spoke at a press briefing Monday.

    “So what are the responses?” Lane asked. “How do we address concerns that students have about value?” 

    Distributions across race and ethnicity will likely change

    Nationwide, Hispanic or multiracial students should make up a greater proportion of high school graduates, while the share of students from other racial and ethnic backgrounds will decline, according to the report. 

    But, according to data from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, multiracial students are the only group projected to see an increase in California. 

    Specifically, in California, between 2023 and 2041: 

    • Multiracial students are projected to increase 224%.
    • Hispanic students are projected to decrease 25%.
    • American Indian and Alaska Native students are projected to decrease 58%.
    • Black students are projected to decrease 62%.
    • Asian, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander students are projected to decrease 35%.
    • White students are projected to decrease 53%. 

    Not everywhere in the country will see the same trends 

    The report projects that the decline in the Western U.S. will mirror the nationwide trend. And California’s decline — anticipated to be roughly 29% across both public and private schools — is expected to account for roughly three-quarters of the regional decline.

    Meanwhile, the report states that the South will continue to defy broader national trends — first seeing some growth and later a smaller decline. 

    The pandemic might have a smaller impact than anticipated  

    According to the report, the Covid-19 pandemic may lead to a slight drop in the number of high school graduates nationwide — only 1% less than what the organization previously projected for 2037. 

    The 1% change is “within the usual fluctuations,” but the report also states that the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education has historically underreported the number of future graduates and that they have found evidence “of a substantial number of students no longer enrolled, suggesting a modest impact overall.” 

    The decline, according to the report, is a result of falling enrollments in both public and private schools. And while the decline is smaller than anticipated, Lane said it will have an impact on the economy. 

    “When we look around our region, and more broadly around the country, we see workforce shortages in virtually any important employment sector that you can think of, from health care, teaching, nursing, engineering, to things that may not be as high on people’s radar, like diesel technicians. It’s a huge deal for a lot of the West,” Lane said at a press briefing Monday. 

    “But if these declining high school graduate numbers translate into even more downward pressure on enrollments,” Lane said, “it’ll be hard to meet some of these workforce demands.” 





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  • What does test prep look like for K-2?

    What does test prep look like for K-2?


    K-2 Test Prep

    In the US, the Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) requires that students be tested in math once a year, starting in third grade. While there are no national laws that require testing before that point, many states and schools are choosing to test students in as young as kindergarten as well. In fact, the desire is so great that there are a number of national grants available for states that wish to implement testing at an earlier age. The reasoning is typically quite different–instead of measuring student progress or judging teacher success, tests for K-2 students are usually designed to identify students in need of special education services. Research has shown that the earlier students receive these extra services, the more effective they are. The idea isn’t to hold back students but to provide extra assistance wherever needed.

    As you might imagine, these assessments usually look quite different than the ones given to older students. Although they’re often computer-based, the questions rely more on visuals, assessments are shorter to match younger students’ shorter attention span, and testing is often more informal. However, one of the biggest problems with testing at such an early age is that these students often don’t have the computer skills necessary to demonstrate what they do and don’t know. Teachers have reported their kindergarteners attempting to swipe or tap a computer monitor and being baffled by the idea of a mouse since their primary technology use is based around tablets and phones. Other teachers report their young students accidentally skip questions or log themselves out of the program, requiring them to completely start the assessment over.

    Even with these difficulties, many teachers still believe the pros of early assessments outweigh the cons. By gathering data, they’re able to identify effective teaching strategies, what their students need more assistance with, and can implement special education services as soon as possible. In order to make sure this data is as accurate as possible, it’s clearly important to make sure students are comfortable using computers while providing fun math practice that keeps young students’ attention. This is the goal of our K-2 math practice in Wowzers, where students practice using math manipulatives and answering questions in short sessions. Although it doesn’t look like a typical test prep, it’s exactly what students need at that age: practice answering math questions on a computer while colorful games and an engaging story keeps their attention.



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  • Slow down and take a closer look at the issue of trans athletes

    Slow down and take a closer look at the issue of trans athletes


    Credit: Philip Strong / Unsplash

    As a San Francisco liberal, I was surprised to find myself agreeing with some MAGA arguments. It reflects a common way of thinking these days: You are either with us or against us. You are either a flaming woke liberal or an ignorant nutcase conservative.

    Not so.

    There are two basic ways people make decisions. Thinking fast and thinking slow. That’s the analysis of Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman.

    Thinking fast is how we make emotional, stereotypic, unconscious decisions. Knee-jerk reactions. Thinking slow, on the other hand, takes more effort and analysis.

    Unfortunately, we sometimes come up with quick, simple answers to questions that require more complicated analysis.

    Let’s take the controversy of whether trans athletes should play on girls sports teams.

    President Donald Trump successfully used this issue to fuel culture wars between Democrats and Republicans during the 2024 presidential campaign.

    The first reaction is emotional, on both sides of the political divide.

    • Conservative response: It’s not fair to give one team a competitive advantage and risk injury to students.
    • Liberal response: Of course they should play on girls teams. We should never discriminate against trans athletes. Banning the athlete treats her as an outsider or misfit. This further traumatizes the trans athlete, who is already struggling with acceptance.

    These “my way or the highway” approaches are playing out at both the federal and state levels.

    One of Trump’s first acts as president was an executive order titled “Keeping Men Out of Women’s Sports.”

     “In recent years, many educational institutions and athletic associations have allowed men to compete in women’s sports. This is demeaning, unfair, and dangerous to women and girls, and denies women and girls the equal opportunity to participate and excel in competitive sports.”

    Democrats later blocked an effort in Congress to turn Trump’s executive order into law.

    Since 2014, California students have had the right to play on a sports team that aligns with their gender identity, irrespective of the gender listed on the student’s records.

    However, two bills were recently introduced in the Legislature to ban this.

    • Assembly Bill 89 (Sanchez), would have required the California Interscholastic Federation to amend its constitution, bylaws and policies to prohibit a pupil whose sex was assigned male at birth from participating on a girls interscholastic sports team.
    • Assembly Bill 844 (Essayli) would have required that a pupil’s participation in sex-segregated school programs and activities, including athletic teams and competitions, and use of facilities, be based upon the pupil’s sex at birth, irrespective of the gender listed on the pupil’s records.

    Both bills were blocked in committee on Tuesday, but Republicans have promised to continue their efforts.

    Gov. Gavin Newsom has angered Democrats and human rights advocates by breaking from the party line. He believes that allowing transgender girls and women to participate in female sports leagues is “deeply unfair.”

    Let’s now take the “think slow” approach: Analyze the issue. Don’t jump to conclusions.

    This issue is not hypothetical for me. My son has played on a girls team, and my daughter has played on a boys team. I have played on women’s soccer teams against trans athletes. For years, I played on co-ed teams.

    But there is one undisputed fact: On average, adolescent boys and men are stronger, taller and faster than girls.

    I absolutely support trans athletes playing on girls’ teams … unless they are bigger and stronger than the girls.

    The table below shows you the physical differences.

    There are no simple answers.

    Conservative response: Ban all trans athletes from playing on a girls team. To heck with equity.

    Liberal response: Allow all trans athletes to play on a girls team. To heck with competitive advantage and safety.

    Neither approach makes sense.  We need a middle ground.

    Let’s try an approach that puts students first.

    • Recognize this is an issue of fairness and equity for both the trans athlete and the members of the girls team.
    • For high school interscholastic sports, base the solution on the particular situation in junior and senior year of high school. That’s when the dramatic differences in strength, weight and height can influence the outcome of the game and impact the safety of the students.
    • For college sports, assess whether there will be a competitive advantage or risk of injury.
    • Understand that whatever the decision, people will be angry.
    • Forget the political divide and rest your decision on what you think is best for students.

    •••

    Carol Kocivar is a child advocate, writer for Ed100.org, retired attorney and past president of the California State PTA.

    The opinions expressed in this commentary represent those of the author. EdSource welcomes commentaries representing diverse points of view. If you would like to submit a commentary, please review our guidelines and contact us.





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